When the Optimists are Too Pessimistic This is why even the optimists can be too pessimistic. Because we are using linear thinking to imagine a geometric future. It just doesn’t work. (6min _ OfDollarsAndData) The Worst Run For Bonds Since 1980 Yes, bonds have gotten killed in the last three months, but this really needs to be put in context. A 5% negative total return over a three-month period isn’t fun, but that’s like a bad week for a… Weiterlesen »2022 – Best of Week 13

Don’t bother looking, it will find you. Don’t bother looking, It will find you. People who sell it will find you. That’s their job. I know these people. They know exactly what they’re doing. And once they’ve identified you they will prey upon your every weakness. Not only will they convince you that this is how the “real” wealthy people invest, they will set an artificial deadline for you to get the money in to… Weiterlesen »2022 – 12 weekly bits and bites

Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2022 The Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook is the authoritative guide to historical long-run returns. Published by the Credit Suisse Research Institute in collaboration with London Business School, it now covers all the main asset categories in 35 countries (including 3 new markets this year). Most of these markets, as well as the 90-country world index, have 122 years of data since 1900. The winds of change are… Weiterlesen »2022 – 11 weekly bits and bites

The Machine There is no more unhealthy behavior among investors than to fixate on each day’s stock market action as though it contains some bigger answer about what’s to come. Weekly closing prices contain some interesting information. Longer term trends, like multi-month moving averages, are also somewhat useful in terms of understanding the broader trends. It’s good to be aware. But daily market data? Hourly? There’s nothing there. It’s fodder for conversation. I try to… Weiterlesen »2022 – 10 weekly bits and bites