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Backgammon, Börse und Langeweile

„Was eine Entscheidung großartig macht, ist nicht, dass sie zu einem großartigenErgebnis führt. Eine großartige Entscheidung ist das Ergebnis eines guten Prozesses, …“ _Annie Duke An den Kapitalmärkten (so wie auch meistens im Leben) trifft man Entscheidungen unter Unsicherheit: Verfügbare Informationen sind unvollkommen und das Ergebnis wird von Zufällen beeinflußt In solchen Fällen können gute Entscheidungen zu schlechten Ergebnissen, und schlechte Entscheidungen zu guten Ergebnissen führen Die Qualität solcher Entscheidungen kann daher nur am Entscheidungsprozess… Weiterlesen »Backgammon, Börse und Langeweile

Backgammon, Investing and Boredom

„What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome.A great decision is the result of a good process, …“ _Annie Duke In the capital markets (as in most of life), decisions are made under uncertainty: available information is imperfect and the outcome is influenced by chance. In such cases, good decisions can lead to bad results, and bad decisions can lead to good results. The quality of such decisions can therefore… Weiterlesen »Backgammon, Investing and Boredom

2022 – Best of Week 13

When the Optimists are Too Pessimistic This is why even the optimists can be too pessimistic. Because we are using linear thinking to imagine a geometric future. It just doesn’t work. (6min _ OfDollarsAndData) The Worst Run For Bonds Since 1980 Yes, bonds have gotten killed in the last three months, but this really needs to be put in context. A 5% negative total return over a three-month period isn’t fun, but that’s like a bad week for a… Weiterlesen »2022 – Best of Week 13

2022 – 12 weekly bits and bites

Don’t bother looking, it will find you. Don’t bother looking, It will find you. People who sell it will find you. That’s their job. I know these people. They know exactly what they’re doing. And once they’ve identified you they will prey upon your every weakness. Not only will they convince you that this is how the “real” wealthy people invest, they will set an artificial deadline for you to get the money in to… Weiterlesen »2022 – 12 weekly bits and bites

2022 – 11 weekly bits and bites

Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2022 The Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook is the authoritative guide to historical long-run returns. Published by the Credit Suisse Research Institute in collaboration with London Business School, it now covers all the main asset categories in 35 countries (including 3 new markets this year). Most of these markets, as well as the 90-country world index, have 122 years of data since 1900. The winds of change are… Weiterlesen »2022 – 11 weekly bits and bites

2022 – 10 weekly bits and bites

The Machine There is no more unhealthy behavior among investors than to fixate on each day’s stock market action as though it contains some bigger answer about what’s to come. Weekly closing prices contain some interesting information. Longer term trends, like multi-month moving averages, are also somewhat useful in terms of understanding the broader trends. It’s good to be aware. But daily market data? Hourly? There’s nothing there. It’s fodder for conversation. I try to… Weiterlesen »2022 – 10 weekly bits and bites

2022 – 9 weekly bits and bites

Betterment a potential target after Wealthfront deal The New York-based robo-adviser, which landed its largest capital funding round to date in September, for a valuation of $1.3 billion, could now have a significant bull’s-eye on its back for potential buyers. (4min _ InvestmentNews) How Roelof Botha became one of the most powerful people in venture capital Few know the man who’s transforming one of Silicon Valley’s top VC firms. Here’s what founders and other insiders… Weiterlesen »2022 – 9 weekly bits and bites

Wer braucht einen Vermögensberater?

„Risiko ist das was übrig bleibt, wenn man denkt, dass man an alles gedacht hat.“_Carl Richards Die zwei gängigsten Gründe gegen Vermögensberater sind zugleich die falschesten: ich besitze kein Vermögen, also wozu ein Vermögensberater? ich  habe mein Vermögen selbst erwirtschaftet, also werde ich es wohl auch selbst verwalten können! Die meisten Menschen wissen über Geld und Vermögen weniger, als ein Kleinkind über Hygiene. Geld und Vermögen ist nicht lebenswichtig, aber Geldangelegenheiten bestimmen unser Leben maßgeblich.… Weiterlesen »Wer braucht einen Vermögensberater?

2022 – 7_8 weekly bits and bites

The Ultimate Superpower in Investing To reap the biggest rewards you must be able to take the painful hits and keep moving forward. Which is why the ultimate superpower in investing is being good at suffering. (6min _ CharlieBilello) Lazy Work, Good Work The point is that productive work today does not look like productive work did for most of history. If your job was to pull a lever, you were only productive if you were pulling the… Weiterlesen »2022 – 7_8 weekly bits and bites

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