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Der Trick beim Erlernen eines komplizierten Themas besteht darin, zu erkennen, wie viele komplexe Details die Verwandten von etwas Einfachem sind. John Reed schreibt in seinem Buch Succeeding: Wenn man anfängt ein Fachgebiet zu studieren, scheint es, als müsse man sich eine Unmenge von Dingen merken. Das ist aber nicht der Fall. Was Sie brauchen,… Weiterlesen »HOME

Backgammon, Börse und Langeweile

„Was eine Entscheidung großartig macht, ist nicht, dass sie zu einem großartigenErgebnis führt. Eine großartige Entscheidung ist das Ergebnis eines guten Prozesses, …“ _Annie Duke An den Kapitalmärkten (so wie auch meistens im Leben) trifft man Entscheidungen unter Unsicherheit: Verfügbare Informationen sind unvollkommen und das…

Backgammon, Investing and Boredom

„What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome.A great decision is the result of a good process, …“ _Annie Duke In the capital markets (as in most of life), decisions are made under uncertainty: available information is imperfect and the outcome is influenced by chance. In such cases, good decisions…&nbsp…

2022 – Best of Week 13

When the Optimists are Too Pessimistic This is why even the optimists can be too pessimistic. Because we are using linear thinking to imagine a geometric future. It just doesn’t work. (6min _ OfDollarsAndData) The Worst Run For Bonds Since 1980 Yes, bonds have gotten killed in the last three months, but this really needs to be…

2022 – 12 weekly bits and bites

Don’t bother looking, it will find you. Don’t bother looking, It will find you. People who sell it will find you. That’s their job. I know these people. They know exactly what they’re doing. And once they’ve identified you they will prey upon your every weakness. Not only will they convince you that this is… Weiterlesen »HOME

2022 – 11 weekly bits and bites

Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2022 The Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook is the authoritative guide to historical long-run returns. Published by the Credit Suisse Research Institute in collaboration with London Business School, it now covers all the main asset categories in 35 countries (including 3 new markets t…

2022 – 10 weekly bits and bites

The Machine There is no more unhealthy behavior among investors than to fixate on each day’s stock market action as though it contains some bigger answer about what’s to come. Weekly closing prices contain some interesting information. Longer term trends, like multi-month moving averages, are also somewhat useful in terms of understanding the bro…

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