weekly

When the Optimists are Too Pessimistic This is why even the optimists can be too pessimistic. Because we are using linear thinking to imagine a geometric future. It just doesn’t work. (6min _ OfDollarsAndData) The Worst Run For Bonds Since 1980 Yes, bonds have gotten killed in the last three months, but this really needs to be put in context. A 5% negative total return over a three-month period isn’t fun, but that’s like a bad week for a… Weiterlesen »2022 – Best of Week 13

Don’t bother looking, it will find you. Don’t bother looking, It will find you. People who sell it will find you. That’s their job. I know these people. They know exactly what they’re doing. And once they’ve identified you they will prey upon your every weakness. Not only will they convince you that this is how the “real” wealthy people invest, they will set an artificial deadline for you to get the money in to… Weiterlesen »2022 – 12 weekly bits and bites

Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2022 The Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook is the authoritative guide to historical long-run returns. Published by the Credit Suisse Research Institute in collaboration with London Business School, it now covers all the main asset categories in 35 countries (including 3 new markets this year). Most of these markets, as well as the 90-country world index, have 122 years of data since 1900. The winds of change are… Weiterlesen »2022 – 11 weekly bits and bites

The Machine There is no more unhealthy behavior among investors than to fixate on each day’s stock market action as though it contains some bigger answer about what’s to come. Weekly closing prices contain some interesting information. Longer term trends, like multi-month moving averages, are also somewhat useful in terms of understanding the broader trends. It’s good to be aware. But daily market data? Hourly? There’s nothing there. It’s fodder for conversation. I try to… Weiterlesen »2022 – 10 weekly bits and bites

Betterment a potential target after Wealthfront deal The New York-based robo-adviser, which landed its largest capital funding round to date in September, for a valuation of $1.3 billion, could now have a significant bull’s-eye on its back for potential buyers. (4min _ InvestmentNews) How Roelof Botha became one of the most powerful people in venture capital Few know the man who’s transforming one of Silicon Valley’s top VC firms. Here’s what founders and other insiders… Weiterlesen »2022 – 9 weekly bits and bites

The Ultimate Superpower in Investing To reap the biggest rewards you must be able to take the painful hits and keep moving forward. Which is why the ultimate superpower in investing is being good at suffering. (6min _ CharlieBilello) Lazy Work, Good Work The point is that productive work today does not look like productive work did for most of history. If your job was to pull a lever, you were only productive if you were pulling the… Weiterlesen »2022 – 7_8 weekly bits and bites

Fluke Forecasting is hard. And not because people aren’t smart, but because trivial accidents can be influential in ways that are impossible to foresee. (5min _ MorganHousel) A softer economics Financial markets are entangled and uncertain. When will economists let go of physics envy to embrace the quantum revolution? Quantum is the scientific equivalent of suitcase wheels. The reason this useful innovation hasn’t caught on, or been rolled out, more generally in areas such as… Weiterlesen »2022 – 5_6 weekly bits and bites

Last Sane Man on Wall Street Nathan Anderson exposes — and bets against — corporate fraud. But short-selling a market this frothy can be ruinous. “I view that more as a reflection of the complete market insanity that we’re in now,” Anderson says. “Where pictures of digital tulips are trading for hundreds of thousands of dollars.” (15min _ NewYorkMagazine) Wordle founder Josh Wardle on going viral and what comes next With Wordle, actually, I kind… Weiterlesen »2022 – 4 weekly bits and bites

The Better Letter: Forecasting Follies Our failures in this regard should encourage us to prepare rather than predict and, perhaps, to try to limit our exposure to extreme fluctuations. (8min _ TheBetterLetter) Are We Bullish Enough? Well guess, what? The 20-year period from 2000-2019 had an annualized return of 6.3% (including dividends). So if we were to highlight that range in the plot above (you can see this below), we would expect U.S. stocks to… Weiterlesen »2022- 1_3 weekly bits and bites